by Guest Sun Dec 08, 2019 2:21 am
Economically, I think all of these would have a very long payoff tail, given the massive investments in time money and labour. It is not just the direct cost, but the opportunity cost.
For example, 30,000 labourers (recruits over three years). If you invested these 30,000 labourers, with 30,000,000 sterling (alleged cost of a project I have ongoing), the trade benefits, if chosen wisely, could be huge. You are forgoing all of this opportunity, on top of the sunk cost.
It just does not stack up, even if we play the game for 20+years.
The world is too small (in terms of trade & people alive), to justify the cost. I cannot remember the location of the reference (will need to check at work), but for example, in the first decade of the 21st Century, China consumed more steel than the world did in the 20th Century. You can see similar deltas between 20th & 19th. & then track back to us, at the dawn of the (pre) industrial age. The world economy (total size), is just not large enough to justify these types of investments.
Which leaves you with Strategic or Prestige.
Strategic
For Spain (& Panama), it would be cheaper to maintain a big fleet in the Atlantic and the Pacific. & let’s be clear, canals are easy to block.
If Spain had a monster fleet in the Atlantic, with a plan to cross and defend Peru & the Philippines, in the event of a seaborne attack (from China?), it would only take a few enterprising members of the Chinese Counter-Terror teams to blow a few locks on the canal, and close the canal for several months. By the time the monster fleet got through, Mandarin would be the lingua franca in Peru.
For Suez
Only really became a strategic necessity with the British occupation of India. Even with the British naval dominance prior to WW1, Britain could not maintain enough first line ships in every theatre, to maintain local theatre dominance. The ability to redeploy rapidly was part of the illusion of force.
For others.
No real strategic imperative. For Stecknitz, In place of sound tolls, you pay canal tolls (to pay it all off). It would be cheaper to build a large navy and terrorise an end to the sound tolls.
Which leaves Prestige.
And all prestige projects, throughout history, have said broadly the same thing. I am technically superior, and rich enough in money and labour to hose a load on this white elephant. Fear Me.
To be fair, it has worked quite well, historically (although I suspect less effective in game).