Stuart Bailey wrote:Papa Clement wrote:If Spain had really wanted to save Savoy then I'm sure she could - either by marching men from Naples or Milan, or even over the Pyrenees, to arrive in time to force the French to reconsider and save the capital of Savoy. Instead they seem to have concentrated on mainly reconnaissance raids, targeting merchant caravans and infrastructure, in preparation for the next campaigning season. I'm not criticising Stuart's choices - he's a better general than I'll ever be, and nobody understands logistics in this game better than he does. Yet it remains a fact that France has consolidated her position and by annexing both Savoy and Genoa, has cut off Milan. I don't know where other French armies are, but perhaps we will find them over the next few turns.
I think you over estimate the power of the Spanish Army in Italy and underestimate the cunning and deadly nature of the French player.
Yes if Spain had stripped every garrison in Milan, Naples and Sicily it could have mustered and sent a relief force which especially if the forces of Savoy had not blown themselves up and conducted the type of defence expected. Might (stress the word Might) have been able to defeat the reported Strength of the French invaders and relieve the siege of Turin in the spring of 1717.
Same can be said about Imperial/Austrian forces but I would ask you to consider that a relief force without artillery is doomed to fail against the French so its maximum land speed is around 80 miles a month, minus any delays caused by Venetian and Papal customs demanding too know if you have paid import duty of all of those horses and wagons etc. Likewise any relief force which engaged with high sickness levels was doomed to fail and if anyone can explain how you can march over the Alps or the length of Italy without picking up sickness levels and a need to spend months resting please share!!!
Having fought against a single Spanish army I know that Stuart can use even part of his Spanish forces effectively. He has, by his own admission, some of the best cavalry, especially light cavalry, in the game, and specialist units like Miquelets. All he had to do was delay or frustrate the French siege effort until the weather turned, not necessarily defeat the French army in a pitched battle. So to do that he just needed a presence to buy Spain time to bring up more troops, including artillery. Would any French general have dared to continue with a siege if he saw a force of Spanish cavalry appearing? Probably not - he would have suspended the siege, assuming that what he was seeing was just a scouting formation and a larger Spanish army was behind it. More importantly than that, it would have given the forces of Savoy a huge morale boost and the Duke may well not have surrendered.
Stuart Bailey wrote:The other problem is that to raise an effective relief force would have resulted in the defences of Naples, perhaps even Milan being reduced to dangerously low levels and a need to reinforce them from Spain. In this context ask yourself why the French have basically massed transports and troops in Southern French ports and nearly every major war ship somewhere between Spain and Naples? Could the French mount a seaborne invasion of Naples (or Spain) before relief force from Naples gets half way through the Papal States = YES! Could the French Navy through everything and the kitchen sink any Spanish troop convoy either trying to reinforce Italy from Spain or shortcut the move up Italy by quicker sea movement = YES!
After the attack on Ceuta, the main Spanish fleet was bottled up in Gibraltar, but I think it must have moved from there to Cadiz by now. It certainly had the opportunity. It would be somewhat unlikely if Spain did not keep a few SoL and cruisers back in Naples, so if you had an army in Naples (which I would have expected you to have), then you could have moved it from Naples to Venice or since you have almost certainly developed Milan's canals, up the River Po to Piacenza by sea within a month before France would have been able to do anything. That would leave about 150 miles to go on foot. Depending on the navigation further up the river, you could have moved some artillery and supplies by barge the month after, linked up with troops from Milan and moved forward towards Savoy. Alternatively the troops from Milan could have made a dash for Alessandria (could not have been more than a month's march from Milan) and denied this town to the French. That would then have been your marshaling point and a place of retreat for Savoy's forces and the Duke, which you could deny to France. Within 3 months you would have a large force capable of challenging France. 3rd alternative would just have been to send some cavalry from Milan forward to check the French, again denying them total victory this year so that they would then have had to have postponed the siege of Savoy (the city) until 1717, by which time you would have brought other units up.
I understand the point about the defences of Naples and Milan being "reduced to dangerously low levels", but that would only be temporary - from January you could raise new units in those towns so that any French spy would have reported a strong garrison by March which would be the earliest time France could have thought about attacking either. Milan is arguably safer than Naples, granted, since it would take longer to get to Milan overland. Presumably both towns have really solid defences with plenty of FC, so are not going to fall as soon as a French army appeared? It would take months for them to be in serious danger of falling, by which time France would have shown her hand and you would therefore have had time to send more reinforcements from Spain. Yes, you would have needed to take on the French fleet if it was still there, but if that's what you had to do to save Naples/Milan then you would do it.
Stuart Bailey wrote:Would point out that prior to the French invasion of Savoy Marshall Tesse and a very, very large French Army moved towards the Spanish frontier probably to try and fix Spanish attention on the North (that worked). Then he moved east to join up with yet more French reinforcements and be very close to his shipping at Marseilles.
From his mid point location Marshall Tesse could:
a) Invade Spain or Naples/Sicily by Sea
b) March back west to cover the Spanish frontier
c) March north to cover the Rhine frontier or invade the west bank to recover Franche Comte or
d) Move into Italy to massively reinforce the French first wave in Italy and smash any relief force.
Spanish high command decided that option b) was the least potentially harmfull and invaded France late in the season. Something which had the bonus of showing the Imperial Princes including the Duke of Savoy that Spain was serious in honouring its mutual defence treaties. With Tesse pinned down in the west that would give Imperial forces with some support from Spanish Italian forces the best chance to save Savoy if the defenders could only hang on through the winter.
Historically the defence of Turin by the forces of Savoy against the French was one of the longest sieges in history and one of the great defences. I am pretty sure it was not only me but the French high command which expected a repeat. Especially due to the timing of their campaign so late in the season combined with fact that their first move was to move against Savoy's main port to provide a logistics and naval hub on other side of Alps as well as stopping reinforcement of Savoy by sea. Combined with attempts to take various other towns rather than march directly to Turin.
My reading is that French expected to take Nice after a longer siege and cut off Turin this campaign season. Then move onto Turin in 1717 with a huge covering force on both land and sea ready to smash the expected relief.
I'm not trying to take away from the French player his achievement - he clearly outwitted you. But ...
option (a) was somewhat unlikely without the French navy protecting any armada. It is more likely the kind of option which would appeal to me than him. Only if the French navy had moved away from Gibraltar was this really possible, and at that point the Spanish navy should have been sent after it. You have larger ships and only needed to draw in any engagement to frustrate his plans.
option (b) by your own admission was the weakest move (for France), so again unlikely when there are better moves available.
option (c) would have probably been my choice, especially given the cowardly Austrian army was hundreds of miles away hiding from the French in Poland.
option (d) I agree would also have been a good move, but it would really have committed France to then attacking Milan in 1717 and then you would have been able to reinforce it.
Now, of course, he has his logistics and naval hub which will make it very difficult to take back either Genoa or Savoy, and he has multiple choices where to go next.
Stuart Bailey wrote:The unexpectedly rapid defeat of Savoy and the capture of its Duke etc following so soon after another blatant French aggression - the French. Means that Agema has given players too options:- a) Admit they are scared of the French player and his Army and try and hide out of the way while he picks off Imperial states and NPC positions etc one at a time or b) Accept that Agema will not fight their battles for them and draw the sword to defend the Empire, Princely rights etc, etc.
Perhaps I am expecting too much of Spain. It should really be down to Austria to defend her Empire, but she is distracted (along with Prussia) with the invasion of Poland, which has to go down as one of the really great blunders in the game. Austria sacrificed Savoy and has now made it much more difficult for Spain to respond to France. Not only that, but Prussia (who is probably the strongest active HRE position after Austria) has also ended up in Poland. As is Sweden. It cannot be coincidence that France waited until Austria gave her the opportunity and then invaded. But what an opportunity ... while in the 1680s France waited for Austria to be distracted by the Ottomans, in G7 in 1716, Austria just walked away from her responsibilities instead, taking the bulk of the military might of the HRE with her. At least the Prussians know why they are there and are making some kind of fight of it, but the Austrians are just sat around where they hope the French can't hit them. 1717 will be very interesting, especially if Spain starts to buckle simply because she can't do everything and can't be everywhere. Perhaps 1717 or 1718 will see the demise of the HRE, possibly the first time it has happened in any game of LGDR? And all because a few nations wanted to gobble up bits of Poland.