Trade Investments - Financial Returns - Not Going Bankrupt

Deacon wrote:
I think that Richard randomizes some game variables when he starts up a new game. Game 8 seemed to start with high economy and high research which has made everybody have an easier time of it.

But I think all those things drift back towards the mean over time.

Yep. I would totally agree with that. Perhaps Richard looks at the players involved. Their Agema experience and the positions they hold and make up his mind from there. If I was starting a new game that is what I would do. Certainly makes good gaming sense.

That could well be. I'm inclined to believe he rolls a dice and just goes, but I can also see him picking it to make sure the games start with different flavors.

On the economy, I'm not sure how sophisticated his model is, but I think that:

1) There is a diminish return on markets and investments. IE there is only so much coffee/tea/wine that is going to get drunk, and more investment won't tend to improve profit much because you're just depressing your own prices while producing more.

2) the EH of all countries in a region play into the trade revenue of that region. So you can have a bad economy, but if your neighbors are doing all right, then your trade income will hold up. If you and your neighbors neglect the home economy, however, then eventually everything will go down. I think the regional economies may also influence each other. The key here is that I think trying to keep your own EH solid is important long term and you can't just ride on trade.

3) You make a lot more if you're the only position in a particular market. For most goods, don't expect that situation to last. Somebody else will figure it out,so invest with that thought in mind.

4) Smaller positions can generate much bigger swings. Since your total income is smaller, you can bet large amounts on single profitable products. If that works, you can get huge growth. If it fails, it fails badly. Larger positions I think who focus too much on one investment just end up wasting money because of point 1 above. I have no idea where that point of diminishing return begins.

My gut feeling about G10 compared to other games is that the dreaded poor harvest dice have had a nasty trait of landing on on key regional markets while good harvests have tended to bless smaller and less import markets.

Think Spain, England, UPP and Russia have all had poor harvest's which caused a lot of distruption and governmental panic if not actual famines in all cases. Meanwhile other key import area's like Italy and France have been hit by natural disasters, wars, revolts and troops marching all over the place.

Some people might even suggest that the privateering trade has had a negative over all effect due to market disruption and higher marine insurance. Personally, do not believe this since all the cargo's ended up somewhere.

And the key point in G10 is that a lot of these blows came early before positions had got in the massive growth sprints see in some other games.

I would also suggest that one reason that G10 has seemed economically sluggish has been the long drawn out political crisis in Spain. Markets tend to like political certainty when making decisions to buy and invest, what they got in G10 was the total opposite.

And with all due respect to the "Great Northern War" for instance this just messes up the Baltic trade zone with perhaps a little over spill into East Europe. The problems of Spain in G10 acts as a drag on The Levant, Maritime and America's trades. With perhaps some effect on the far east and Africa.

And of course G10 just happens to have a lot of players who's home area is the Levant or Maritime region.

Basically I like to think its all proof positive that the G7, G8 & G9 are all really lucky in having stable, nice and fluffy Spanish Governments who are almost single handly keeping builders, doll makers, jewellery and silk dress makers fully employed! But probably not as many gutter snipe jurno's and their publishers as G10.

I'm in two minds on this...on one hand see Stuart's point and completely agree...

...on the other Rev and JB are right, even allowing for Spain it does seem sluggish...and got to admit it is more frustrating in a real-time game, I do want to develop my economy and my position before I retire or go to Valhalla